Rachel Neumeier

Fantasy and Young Adult Fantasy Author

Blog

Eight Perceptions of Probability

From Ben Orlin at Math With Bad Drawings, an entertaining look at the highly disparate ways in which different professions look at probability.

I like them all, and two are actually SF-related, so that’s keen. But it’s possible that my favorite is:

20150921070718_00004

That is so, so true. For the media, Everything Must Be A Crisis.

Click through and check out the Millennium Falcon one.

An extra note on probability: I recently had a conversation that went like this (via texting, so I didn’t have to do the math in my head):

Friend: So the x-ray shows six puppies!

Me: Six! Wow, that’s great!

Friend: I really want girls! I hope they’re not all boys!

Me: Well, there’s only about a 1.5% chance they’re all boys.

Friend: What’s the chance of just one girl?

Me: About 9.5%. There’s about a 23% chance there are two girls, and about a 31% chance of three girls. So there’s about a 65% chance of three or more girls.

Friend: Great!

Me: Probability: a way of going wrong with confidence!

There were in fact three girls and three boys in the litter, which was born last Sunday. So I’ll leave you with a row of cute little puppies:

unnamed (10)

The three on the right are the girls. Just like little sausages with noses, at this age. They’ll be just overwhelmingly cute in six weeks, though!

Please Feel Free to Share:

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedintumblrmail

Leave A Comment